Forecasting phenology: from species variability to community patterns.
نویسندگان
چکیده
Shifts in species' phenology in response to climate change have wide-ranging consequences for ecological systems. However, significant variability in species' responses, together with limited data, frustrates efforts to forecast the consequences of ongoing phenological changes. Herein, we use a case study of three North American plant communities to explore the implications of variability across levels of organisation (within and among species, and among communities) for forecasting responses to climate change. We show how despite significant variation among species in sensitivities to climate, comparable patterns emerge at the community level once regional climate drivers are accounted for. However, communities differ with respect to projected patterns of divergence and overlap among their species' phenological distributions in response to climate change. These analyses and a review of hypotheses suggest how explicit consideration of spatial scale and levels of biological organisation may help to understand and forecast phenological responses to climate change.
منابع مشابه
Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science
Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology – the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. ...
متن کاملYearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability
Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly...
متن کاملA long-term evaluation of fruiting phenology: importance of climate change
Within the last decade the study of phenology has taken on new importance because of its contribution to climate-change research.However, phenology data sets spanningmany years are rare in the tropics,making it difficult to evaluate possible responses of tropical communities to climate change. Here we use two data sets (1970–1983 and 1990–2002) to describe the fruiting patterns of the tropical ...
متن کاملTemporal Dynamics in Rhizosphere Bacterial Communities of Three Perennial Grassland Species
Rhizodeposition is considered a primary reason for the plant identity effect. However, the detection of distinct rhizosphere bacterial communities (RBC) with different plant species has been variable. The aim of this study was to examine the potential explanations for this variability using three perennial grassland species. In a Kansas field experiment, over two growing seasons, we sampled RBC...
متن کاملBeyond seasonal climate: statistical estimation of phenological responses to weather.
Phenological events, such as the timing of flowering or insect emergence, are influenced by a complex combination of climatic and non-climatic factors. Although temperature is generally considered most important, other weather events such as frosts and precipitation events can also influence many species' phenology. Non-climatic variables such as photoperiod and site-specific habitat characteri...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
- Ecology letters
دوره 15 6 شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2012